Fairer voting helps but fundamental reforms are needed to tackle the crisis in the impoverished north
The bloody aftermath of [ http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/2598/Goodluck-Jonathan ]Goodluck Jonathan’s victory in the 16 April presidential election will require decisive action from his new government to prevent a dangerous and widening gulf between north and south. Although Jonathan, on the ticket of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), won most of his 22.5 million votes in the south, he scored enough in the north to claim a respectable national mandate, according to the results from the Independent National Electoral Commission.His closest rival, Major General [ http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/2606/Muhammadu-Buhari ]Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), scored the bulk of his 12.2 mn. votes in the north. Jonathan easily met the constitutional requirement of more than 25% of the vote in 24 of the 36 states; he passed that in 31 states, including several in the north-west. Buhari passed the threshold in just twelve states, all in the north. Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) came third with 2.1 mn. votes, followed by former Kano State Governor [ http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/2687/Ibrahim-Shekarau ]Ibrahim Shekarau, with 917,000.
Although domestic and international observers praised INEC’s efforts under new Chairman Attahiru Jega, neither Buhari nor his party accepted the presidential figures as genuine and are challenging them in court.Tragically, the results were challenged first in the streets of Kaduna, Kano and Bauchi states. Buhari’s supporters vented their rage on those in the northern establishment deemed treacherously to have helped Jonathan and then on southern migrants and Christians (although Buhari’s running mate was a Christian from Lagos and the CPC had fielded many Christian candidates). Among the tens of people killed were students in the National Youth Service Corps recruited by INEC to help run the polls.
There are credible claims of electoral malpractice on both sides. Press photographers caught CPC activists shepherding underage voters to the polls in CPC strongholds in Kaduna and Katsina. In the south-east and Niger Delta, Jonathan and the PDP benefited from a suspiciously high turnout at the presidential election, in some cases almost double that in the National Assembly polls of the previous week.
Buhari challenges votes
Buhari’s team complains that INEC’s electronic spreadsheet programme arbitrarily suppressed his votes. Jega promises an investigation of serious claims, even before complainants go to court. This will not be enough to soothe the anger of the young, often unemployed militants in the north, who watch as political power – like much of Nigeria’s economic power – shifts southwards.
Militants attacked the palace of the Sultan of Sokoto, the traditional symbol of religious authority in northern Nigeria. They razed Vice-President Mohammed Namadi Sambo’s home in Zaria, and Emirs’ properties in Katsina, Kano and across the north. Particular targets were those northerners who had endorsed Jonathan, such as former President Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari and the Emir of Gwandu, Muhammad Iliyasu Bashar. The Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar III, described Jonathan as a ‘son of the Caliphate’, to boost his standing in the Muslim north. After the protests started, Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido told local radio that he and many others had used cash to mobilise support for the PDP. Buhari’s supporters remained convinced that there would be a bulk vote for Buhari, given the failure of successive PDP governments to improve security, electricity, water supply or job prospects. Many disgruntled northerners defected from the PDP to the CPC and the split in the PDP grew after Jonathan won the presidential nomination in January.
Yet many in the north remain adamant that his was a stolen victory: ‘I have never told anyone that Buhari won the election but I am willing to stake my reputation on the fact that he did not lose’, says Junaidu Mohammed, a Soviet-trained neurologist close to Buhari who heads the People’s Salvation Party, a leftist minority party in the north. He says many could contemplate a northern breakaway: ‘If these differences persist, it may lead to the break up of the country. I’m not sure that would be a disastrous development. I have never seen the north this angry.’
Now the north’s own traditional leaders find their authority and legitimacy questioned as never before. Their willingness to be coopted by former President [ http://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/2592/Olusegun-Obasanjo ]Olusegun Obasanjo and now by Jonathan has undermined them and their institutions just as radical groups such as Boko Haram and Hijrah are stepping up arms seizures and attacks on police stations. They and other militant groups are linked to bombings in Maiduguri, aimed at disrupting the elections.
On the golf course at the Kano Club, founded by the colonials in 1908, the Emir of Kazaure in Jigawa, Najib Hussaini Adamu, tees into a dust storm and dismisses charges that emirs and other traditional leaders distributed money on behalf of the PDP. These were rumours, he says, spread on text messages. ‘I wouldn’t say the attacks were on the integrity of the leadership. It is misunderstood anger,’ argues the Emir. ‘We are the custodians of peace and stability. By virtue of our positions we can’t openly come out and endorse politicians. But when they are in trouble they look for someone to blame. In this case, it was us.’ After these fractious elections, playing the blame game will help neither the northern elite nor the new establishment in Abuja.
snddenJPIC 